Wartsila: More evidence of power equipment orders peaking

Research evidence excerpt

Wartsila: More evidence of power equipment orders peaking

Equity Research

European Capital Goods

22 July 2026

Wartsila

More evidence of power

equipment orders peaking

WRT faces risks to both earnings & valuation (DD premium to WRT1V.HE/WRT1V FH UNDERWEIGHT

ENR), as we see a gap between announced capacity Unchanged

expansion & expected market share; Energy margin European Capital Goods UnchangedNEUTRAL

restrained by mix & stagnant ASP; Service growth slowed; Price Target EUR 19.00

downgraded Energy demand outlook points to material raised 6% from EUR 18.00

sequential decline in orders. UW. Price (20-Jul-26) EUR 30.56 Potential Upside/Downside -37.8%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Mixed 2Q, expensive valuation, likely peaked orders, potentially overly optimistic

expectations. Wartsila delivered record orders in 2Q, very strong FCF (>€300m of NWC tailwind), Market Cap (EUR mn) 18083

and in-line earnings, but it downgraded demand outlook for Energy to stable, recorded negative Shares Outstanding (mn) 591.72

Service order growth and printed stagnant ASP for new energy equipment orders. We remain Free Float (%) 78.51

cautious on WRT given: 1) likely material sequential decline of Energy order post 2Q (as DC 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.9

customers already pre-ordered 3-4 years of equipment supply); 2) mix headwinds to energy Dividend Yield (%) 1.76

margins (given stagnant ASP) going forward; 3) lacklustre service dynamic; 4) DD risk to Return on Equity TTM (%) 27.13

Bloomberg consensus EBIT (as we believe the market overestimates speed of backlog Current BVPS (EUR) 4.06

conversion and underestimates mix headwind); 5) our concerns about company's ability to Source: Bloomberg

sustainably utilise expanded capacity (operational from 2029), based on realistic DC demand