Adyen "Shopify Payments (PayFac) Relationship" (Buy) Forsythe

Research evidence excerpt

Adyen "Shopify Payments (PayFac) Relationship" (Buy) Forsythe

A (12/26E) NM

GPV globally (FY26E), so further embedding within Shopify represents meaningful

EPS (UBS, diluted) (EUR)

upside to the Platform TPV / Revenue estimates (Adyen for platforms TPV of ~$345b

UBS Cons.

FY26E). Winning 100% of Shopify Europe volume would illustratively represent a ~4ppt

12/26E 39.07 38.85

one-time uplift to revenue at a ~5bps take rate (UBSe). Toast is another large platform

12/27E 49.50 47.59

where we believe Adyen is pushing for incremental share.

12/28E 64.22 58.43

Sizing the revenue uplift, not material direct opportunity, but a harbinger of Justin Forsythe, CPA

success in Platforms Analyst

justin.forsythe@ubs.com

To frame the potential revenue impact of Adyen’s inclusion within Shopify Payments, we

+44-20-7567 4191

construct a simple top-down build anchored on our US colleagues' estimates of

Shopify’s Global Payments GPV. As expected (particularly given the relationship being in Timothy E. Chiodo, CFA

trial stage), direct revenue impact is not likely material to begin (assuming 5bps take rate Analyst

timothy.chiodo@ubs.com

and 25% penetration the UK and France). In numbers we would expect < 50bps uplift

+1-415-352 4500

to Adyen net revenue. We assume a ramp is ratable over time, under the premise that

the backbook of existing Shopify sub-merchants may be under existing arrangements Mahir Bidani, ACA

tying them into Stripe or PayPal contractually. However, we think that potential remains Analyst

mahir.bidani@ubs.com

for Adyen to win incremental volume across Europe if the trial goes well (and of course

+44-20-7568 3963

incremental volume in the UK and France). We are intentionally not including EFS

revenue which would represent incremental upside from a materiality perspective.