Resonac Holdings (4004): Raise PO: AI upside potential stronger than expected

Research evidence excerpt

Resonac Holdings (4004): Raise PO: AI upside potential stronger than expected

Short-term view

• Core OP for 2Q is expected at ¥47.4bn. Strong momentum in AI-related materials

including NCF, copper clad laminates, TIM materials, and solder resist is expected to

continue. Full-year core OP is likely to be revised upward to around ¥170bn from

¥140bn, which is expected to act as a share-price catalyst.

• Copper clad laminates for GPU and CPU in 1Q increased more than expected, with

limited impact from T-glass cloth shortages. Increased supply from Nittobo, as well

as other suppliers including Taiwan Glass contributed. NCF is expected to rise

sharply from 2Q driven by HBM demand. In addition, electronic materials for

smartphones showed notable strength in 1Q.

• In 2026, beyond electronic materials, key themes include the partial spin-off of the

petrochemicals business Crasus Chemical, improvement in the graphite electrode

business, and potential divestments.

o Graphite electrodes are benefiting from strong US steel market

conditions, along with countervailing duties on imports from India and

China, and ongoing anti-dumping investigations. The countervailing

duty investigation has been postponed, with a preliminary

determination expected by 24 July. The anti-dumping investigation

committee is scheduled to announce its preliminary determination on

4 August, although a delay remains possible.

o In Europe, steel production is expected to recover due to reduced

inflows of imported steel driven by TRQ and CBAM. This is likely to

support increased demand for Resonac’s graphite electrodes.

o Resonac Holdings is expected to become more focused on electronic

materials, alongside balance sheet slimming. These factors are

regarded as positive share-price catalysts.