Food And HPC Weaken In May, Perhaps Due To SNAP Cutback Pressures

Research evidence excerpt

Food And HPC Weaken In May, Perhaps Due To SNAP Cutback Pressures

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

May 26, 2026

■Food: Food Producers Food And HPC Weaken In May, Perhaps Due

■Household & Personal Care

To SNAP Cutback Pressures

Robert Moskow THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1474

Big Food declined to -0.4% in the L2W ending May 16 compared to +1.3% in the L4W and -0.3%

robert.moskow@tdsecurities.com

YTD. Big HPC also decelerated to 0.7% and 1.7% compared to 2.1% YTD. We believe cutbacks

Sergio Matsumoto to SNAP subsidies and slowly rising food prices contributed to consumers’ cautious spending

646 562 1339 patterns. We view the L2W and YTD as closer to “apples-to-apples” because it fully laps Easter

sergio.matsumoto@tdsecurities.com

year ago comparisons.

Jacob Henry, CFA

646 562 1380 Note: Easter 2025 was on April 20th. Easter 2026 was on April 5th. Our data includes the

jacob.henry@tdsecurities.com Amazon 1P, Costco, and Pet Retail channels.

Victor Ma Food: Pendulum Swinging Back To Pricing

646 562 1306

victor.ma2@tdsecurities.com Big Food retail prices have crept up about 3% due to tariff-related price increases. As a

result, volume declined -3.1% in L2W, -1.7% in L4W and -3.2% YTD. We expect volume declines

Seamus Cassidy

to accelerate in 2H26 as the pendulum swings further to pricing to cover cost rather than646 562 1319

seamus.cassidy@tdsecurities.com affordability and elasticity remains soft. KHC, GIS, and MKC were particularly weak in L2W

post-Easter. HSY, MDLZ, and SJM were stronger. We expect MKC, CPB, SJM, and GIS to miss

near-term consensus sales expectations.

HPC: Short-Term Deceleration Comes As A Surprise

The deceleration in Big HPC’s sales in L2W was a bit surprising given its relative resilience YTD.

Results varied widely by company: CLX, PG, UL were weak.