Can Canada Meet the Moment? Ahead Of The Curve

Research evidence excerpt

Can Canada Meet the Moment? Ahead Of The Curve

TD Cowen

Global Research May 26, 2026

Overview of Our Investment Thesis

Below we summarize our updated investment views, which are expanded in detail on

pages 15-41. These conclusions flow directly from the scenario-based framework

developed in this report and reflect our assessment of where the emerging growth

inflection in Canadian energy infrastructure is most likely to translate into equity-

relevant outcomes. To this end, these conclusions predominantly reflect the base

case but would be further enhanced by the upside and blue-sky scenarios. As

incremental egress materializes primarily through utilization, debottlenecking, and

select large-scale expansions, the investment opportunity set increasingly

differentiates between assets positioned to capture near- and medium-term

throughput growth and those where incremental Canadian activity remains

strategically or financially secondary. Across our coverage universe, we favour

business models with visible pathways to monetizing higher system utilization and

repeatable brownfield expansion, while remaining disciplined around execution risk,

balance sheet constraints, and valuation dispersion. The investment conclusions

below reflect this lens, highlighting where growth visibility, optionality, and capital

discipline intersect most attractively, and where headline infrastructure momentum is

less likely to be thesis-changing for stocks.

1. Building Canada Act Improves the Outlook for Large Energy Infrastructure

Projects (Aaron MacNeil: ENB, GEI, KEY, PPL, RGSI, SOBO, TRP)

2. We Recommend Owning Indirect Midstream Beneficiaries in an Expanding

Canadian Egress Environment as System Congestion Creates Both

Inflationary Challenges and Repeatable Brownfield Growth Opportunities