Density Survey Says? US Auto Demand Resilience To Continue - Ahead Of The Curve

Research evidence excerpt

Density Survey Says? US Auto Demand Resilience To Continue - Ahead Of The Curve

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

May 26, 2026

■Consumer: Automobiles & Components Density Survey Says? US Auto Demand

Resilience To Continue - Ahead Of The Curve

Itay Michaeli THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1412

Our 2026 Vehicle Density Survey was surprisingly positive in light of the macro. Respondents

itay.michaeli@tdsecurities.com

expect a +7% vehicle density gain (cars/household) in the coming two years vs. last year's +3%.

Justin Barell The trade idea coming out of our survey is to position for NA production upside in 2027-28,

646 562 1377 as new US capacity will likely be met by strong demand. Suppliers likely key beneficiaries. We

justin.barell@tdsecurities.com

upgraded Lear to Buy.

Selina Liu

646 562 1449 Team TD Cowen Autos Appreciates Your 5-Star Extel Vote in Autos & Auto Parts. Thank you!

selina.liu2@tdsecurities.com

Our Thesis

The macro backdrop has raised fresh concerns around the sustainability of US auto demand.

The problem with using traditional forecasting methods is that they've long failed to

incorporate two unique traits of the US auto market, namely shifts in vehicle density (vehicles/

household, for which a 1% change alone can impact SAAR by ~3mln) and installed-base

analytics. We developed proprietary tools for both, which helped us navigate through last

year's tariff concerns. Our fresh vehicle density survey revealed surprisingly positive results,

pointing to a robust +7% expected rise in US vehicle density over the next two years, even

better than the +3% observed in our June 2025 survey. Similarly, the "More/Fewer" ratio of

2.1x was far better than last year's 1.6x. Macro remains a risk, but our latest survey supports

an above-consensus US auto demand view.