Australia Macro+: AlphaWise Survey: Cracks Emerging

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Macro+: AlphaWise Survey: Cracks Emerging

Asia Pacific Insight

May 28, 2026 08:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Macro+ Chris Read

Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

AlphaWise Survey: Cracks Chris.Read@morganstanley.comChris Nicol +61 2 9770-1513

Equity Strategist

Chris.Nicol@morganstanley.com +61 3 9256-8909

Emerging Antony Conte

Antony.Conte@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1544

Our ninth annual AlphaWise survey of Australian Households Isabel Black

shows a generally resilient backdrop, but evidence of caution EquityIsabel.Black@morganstanley.comStrategist +61 2 9775-2519

emerging and an overly optimistic outlook for income and Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

wealth. As the economy slows, the distributional data suggests Mavis Ng

most risk across leveraged and low income households. DataMavis.Ng@morganstanley.comAnalyst +852 2239-7840

Exhibit 1 : Survey data shows households areMSurvey Number Nine: For the ninth year, we have conducted an AlphaWise Survey

bracing for the impact of higher rates, but in

of 2,449 households across March and April to assess not just the aggregate state

our view are too optimistic on house price and

and trajectory of consumer and housing conditions, but also to provide detail on the

income expectations

distribution and degree of stress and risk – something unavailable in the macro data.

%

Macro Takeaway #1 – A more resilient starting point for households: Our 2022 2024 2025 2026 15.0

AlphaWise survey finds that household conditions have improved from last year,

with stronger realised income outcomes and rebuilt savings buffers. Financial stress 4.8 5.7 5.0 6.0

5 3.3 3.0

1.7

remains elevated, but fewer households report that it is affecting spending. 0.7 0.8