Li Auto Inc.: 1Q26 call takeaways – 1Q a trough quarter; targeting 40%+ YoY volume growth in 2H

Research evidence excerpt

Li Auto Inc.: 1Q26 call takeaways – 1Q a trough quarter; targeting 40%+ YoY volume growth in 2H

Update

May 28, 2026 05:39 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MLi Auto Inc. | Asia Pacific Tim Hsiao

Equity Analyst

1Q26 call takeaways – 1Q a Tim.Hsiao@morganstanley.comPeggy Wang +852 2848-1982

Research Associate

Peggy.Pc.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3934

trough quarter; targeting 40%+ Shelley Wang, CFA

Shelley.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0047

YoY volume growth in 2H Joey Xu, CFA

Joey.Xu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0337

Key Takeaways

Li Auto Inc. (2015.HK, 2015 HK)

The stock is likely to trade sideways after 1Q results. The bright side: the 21% sell- ADRLI.O

off over the past two weeks (HSI -5%) should have priced in the anemic 1Q. China Autos & Shared Mobility | China

Stock Rating Overweight

In addition, extra impetus lent by the entire range of L-series upgrades should Industry View In-Line

anchor a more meaningful sales bounce into 2H. Price target HK$83.00

Shr price, close (May 28, 2026) HK$60.45

On the flip side, 2Q guidance and margin resurgence was a bit shy of Street 52-Week Range HK$128.10-58.60

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 2,015

expectations. Competition in large SUVs remains white-hot. Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb105,399.6

EV, curr (mn) Rmb13,044.7

To bridge the gap between the company’s AI ambition and capital markets’ auto Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$1,249

anxiety, smoother ramp of L9 and variants is essential...

... and hinges on quality execution in not only production but also greater market

mindshare.

Management targets 2Q26 group GpM of 10%+ and vehicle margin of ~10%:

With more material cost inflation reflected in 2Q and a higher proportion of i6,

ultimately, vehicle margin will hinge on L9 deliveries. Management mentioned that