Agility Global PLC: NAV: Excessive Discount Remains. But Don't Overlook Expansion Levers.

Research evidence excerpt

Agility Global PLC: NAV: Excessive Discount Remains. But Don't Overlook Expansion Levers.

IdeaMthe JV also helps address what is currently ALP’s main bottleneck: access to land.

During the 1Q26 earnings call management also noted it is close to signing a

transaction to expand its landbank (here). As the expansion phase normalizes, ALP

should become an increasingly predictable, high-margin cash-flow stream and, over

time, a potential monetization candidate.

DSV: eyes on buybacks. Management Exhibit 1: Agility could benefit

sounded constructive on DSV ahead of ~USD1.1bn cumulative buybacks

its CMD, highlighting that the from DSV in 2026-2030

reintroduction of buybacks could provide Agility share of DSV Buybacks (USDmn)

357.2

a natural, non-disruptive route to 306.2

monetise part of Agility’s stake. It also 255.1

noted that factors such as AI have led it 204.1

to positively review its fair value

assumptions for DSV versus prior

estimates. Agility holds ~19.3mn DSV

shares, equivalent to an ~8.2% stake, of 2027 2028 2029 2030

which ~12mn are hedged through funded Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates, Factset

collars. The most natural path, in our

view, is a gradual and market-friendly sell-down once DSV resumes buybacks. Our

colleagues expect DSV buybacks to resume in 1Q27, with a quarterly cadence;

assuming Agility participates broadly pro-rata to keep its ~8.2% stake stable, and

holding the current DKK/USD rate constant, this would imply annual cash inflows of

~USD 204mn/255mn/306mn/357mn over 2027-30, equivalent to selling

~0.8mn/1.1mn/1.3mn/1.5mn shares per year at the current stock price. Cumulatively,

this would require the sale of ~4.6mn shares by 2030, comfortably below the

~7.3mn shares currently free from the collar structure. While DSV reiterated at its