LatAm Agribusiness: Brazil Agri Credit and Farmer Margins - April Update

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Agribusiness: Brazil Agri Credit and Farmer Margins - April Update

Idea

Recent Research:Mthe transmission from tight credit to lower acreage expansion and input intensity.

Sao Martinho SA: 4Q26 Earnings: EBITDA beat;

Looking ahead, sustainability is the key question. With margins still under pressure 26/27 guidance supports the recovery setup (26

and interest rates and delinquency elevated, it is unclear whether the industry will May 2026)

continue expanding farmer funding from here. If private funding slows, Brazil supply Latin America Economics: LatAm oil exposure –

growth should decelerate with a lag, supporting our original thesis. Alternatively, from inflation, to growth, to monetary policy

renewed refinancing lines and government support could re‑inject liquidity, (20 May 2026)

extending growth and keeping global ag markets oversupplied, with commodity Global Sugar: Timing the Turning Point (20 May

prices under pressure. We see this as a critical inflection point for the sector. 2026)

LatAm Agribusiness: WASDE: 2026/27 Corn

Exhibit 2: Soybean margins in MT: Bad combination for farmers margins

Stocks Tighten Globally; Soybean Stocks

outlook. High costs and low prices.

Tighten in the U.S. (13 May 2026)

bags/ha Farmer Affordability Ratio Soy Price (R$/bag) Global Strategy Mid-Year Outlook: Constructive,

40.00 200.00 Not Complacent (12 May 2026)

Affordability Ratio (bags/ha in Mt) Local Soy Price (R$/bag in Mt)

ADECOAGRO S.A.: 1Q26 Earnings: Urea

180.00

35.00 Momentum Set to Improve in 2Q/3Q (12 May

160.00 2026)

30.00

Rumo SA: 1Q26 earnings in line; but

140.00

management raises optimism for 2H volumes (8

25.00

120.00 May 2026)

Global Agribusiness: Weather Outlook: El Niño 20.00

100.00

by Weather Experts (7 May 2026)

15.00 80.00