Qatar Gas Transport Nakilat Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Qatar Gas Transport Nakilat Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Qatar Gas Transport Nakilat Co Ltd (QGTS.QA)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Total Vessels 72.0 75.0 91.0 97.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

LNG demand, particularly in Asia RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Supply/demand of LNG carriers Incremental LNG capacity being announced in

New LNG capacity the United States and in Qatar Sales / 3,965

Increase in the LNG flow between the US and Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Asia, implying longer voyages (QAR, mn) consensus data for this metric

Tighter vessel market supporting spot rates for

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% LNG vessels China and India

0-10% Latin America RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 3,012

EBITDA

Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying 0-10% North America Increase in interest rates, weighing on expected (QAR, mn)

consensus data for this metric 10-20% Europe ex UK levered returns from new vessels

20-30% India Delay on the start-up of new LNG capacity

20-30% Japan Slowdown in global GDP growth, resulting in

20-30% Mainland China lower LNG demand 0.30

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate EPS Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (QAR) consensus data for this metric

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 33.2%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x 0.15

5/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 3% DPS Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

MOST Horizon (QAR)

consensus data for this metric

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be