Business & Education Services: Digging into Landfills

Research evidence excerpt

Business & Education Services: Digging into Landfills

landfills remain common within the industry. Lengthy

permitting and construction timelines (5-10 years), consistent environmental

scrutiny, and steady waste tonnage positions the industry for a shortage of landfills

in the coming decades as the EPA data shows a net 25 decline in active landfill count

in '24 compared to '18. As a result, the industry is increasingly reliant on expanding

existing sites and providers often acquire existing landfills to add to their suite,

though >50% of EPA tracked landfills are expected to reach capacity and go offline

within the next 25 years. This dynamic is driving a structurally tightening disposal

market and is expected to put pricing power in the hands of those with the best

positioned assets. We take a deeper dive into the landfill assets between the three

waste peers.

~50% of landfills are expected to go offline by 2050, with 1/3rd by 2040. Based

on the EPA database of landfills, >600 landfills are estimated to go offline by 2050

based on their estimated closure dates. As a result, closures are a predictable but

impactful force that tightens supply across the industry. Based on the expected

closing year of open landfills within the EPA's database, the average landfill is

expected to close in 38 years, with the median at 21 years. However, when

considering remaining permitted capacity, probable expansion capacity and

projected annual disposal volume of the big three waste peers, RSG's remaining

useful life (56 years) exceeds both WM (39 years) and WCN (34 years). Landfills in

the Northeast (14% of all EPA listed landfills but serving a large population)

estimated to close before 2040 represent 46% of total Northeast landfills as