European Metals & Mining Tracker: Offsets, But Tight

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Tracker: Offsets, But Tight

Idea

May 28, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

Offsets, But Tight Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Mongolian coking coal exports cushion a potential supply shock Adahna Ekoku

Exhibit 1: China's met-coal imports from Mongolia have surged ~70% YtD; Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Ferdinand Huber

further growth lies ahead

Research Associate

8.0 mt Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

7.0

Brian Morgan

6.0 Equity Analyst

Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

5.0 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

China Met-Coal Imports Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

4.0

from Mongolia (2022-25) Commodities Strategist

Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

3.0

Ben Kelson

2.0 Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

1.0 Mining 101

0.0 Mining & Steel Equities

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mining Sector Valuation Long Term

Source: China Customs, Morgan Stanley Research Steel Sector Valuation Long Term

Commodity Price Signals

Safety checks widen supply risk. A fatal explosion at the Liushenyu underground

Commodity Price Forecast

mine in Shanxi, China on 22 May claimed at least 82 lives and triggered production

suspensions across Qinyuan county. Our China Materials Analyst Hannah Yang

estimates (see here), using Sxcoal data, that Qinyuan has 25 operating mines with

27.4mtpa of capacity, mostly coking coal. She further estimates that follow-on

safety checks across Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other mining