Macquarie Asia Conference 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Macquarie Asia Conference 2026

this in part to tangible bilateral deliverables that he

jokingly terms the "Three Bs": beef, soya beans, and Boeing aircraft.

• No near-term supply chain decoupling: Ding estimates that the US and its allies will need

7-10 years to meaningfully reduce dependency on Chinese critical minerals. Conversely,

foreign economies maintain a 5-7-year technological advantage over China in the

semiconductor sector, which will serve as a continuous bargaining chip.

Navigating markets in an uncertain world

Speaker: Emerging markets are set for structural outperformance, amid fading US exceptionalism

Viktor Shvets, Head of and a structural shift in developing market indices toward new economies, but with previous

Asia Pacific & Global Equity patterns of cycles upended, Shvets argues that investors should abandon obsolete traditional

Strategy, Macquarie Capital investing frameworks and embrace thematic investing instead.

• The "end of the EM winter": The structural composition of emerging market indices has

shifted dramatically, with new economies now representing roughly 45% of the weight, up

from less than 10% a decade ago. The strategist estimated that this repositioning could

drive index earnings per share growth of 35% to 45% through 2026 and 2027.

• Thematic investing replaces obsolete cycle-based strategies: With financial assets

now 6-10x larger than underlying real economies, surplus capital is continually hunting for

marginal opportunities, cushioning asset prices. Simultaneously to the elimination of capital

Source: Macquarie Research, May cycles, the mix of tech and financialisation has allowed the creation of enormous businesses

2026 in very short timeframes, steepening business cycles. In this world we see bubbles forming,