AkzoNobel: €73 Offer Lifts AKZA, But Valuation Leaves Room for More

Research evidence excerpt

AkzoNobel: €73 Offer Lifts AKZA, But Valuation Leaves Room for More

Equity Research

European Chemicals & Ingredients

27 May 2026

AkzoNobel

€73 Offer Lifts AKZA, But Valuation

Leaves Room for More First Look

Interloper risk returns as Nippon/Sherwin propose break-up AKZO.AS/AKZA NA EQUAL WEIGHT

NEGATIVEstructure, triggering a short squeeze in AKZA. While the now EuropeanIngredientsChemicals &

rejected €73 offer implies a strong premium, valuation (~10x Price Target EUR 47.00

EV/EBITDA) screens below precedent deals, supports Board Price (26-May-26) EUR 52.52 Potential Upside/Downside -10.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchrejection.

Our view: We believe investors had largely discounted the risk of an interloper given the European Chemicals & Ingredients

prevailing assumption that any competing bid would need to be a full-company takeover, Katie Richards

+44 (0)20 3555 0315which screened as both capital intensive and strategically complex based on peer balance

kathryn.richards@barclays.com

sheets. This had reinforced merger arb positioning, with AKZA widely shorted against AXTA

Barclays, UK

since the 18 November 2025 announcement (10% short interest: Bloomberg), alongside

additional pressure from weaker pricing pass-through in an inflationary environment. In that Anil Shenoy

+91 (0)22 6175 2487context, the Nippon Paint/Sherwin-Williams proposal has been notable as it introduced a

anil.shenoy@barclays.com

credible alternative structure, whereby a consortium could underwrite a full bid but

ultimately allocate assets via a break-up, lowering the barrier to entry. This appears to have

caught positioning offside, with AKZA moving sharply higher (~+14% on Tradegate) as shorts Alex Sloane

+44 (0)20 3555 0645squeeze.