MapLight Therapeutics Inc "Best-in-class muscarinic potential with two..."

Research evidence excerpt

MapLight Therapeutics Inc "Best-in-class muscarinic potential with two..."

ity of success (PoS) for ML-007 and ~$770M risk-

adjusted peak sales. If successful, we believe ML-007 could emerge as a meaningful

disruptor in schizophrenia, with potential for a steeper launch trajectory vs Cobenfy

driven by a more optimized clinical profile faproved,weforecastML-07tocaptureschizophreniaTRxaboveCobenfyinitsfirstcomercialyeargivenbetermarketdynamics/improvedphysicianawarenesformuscarinicsupdateconsensusnumbers-lastupdated5/6).

EVIDENCE

1) Analysis of scientific literature, 2) Analysis of IQVIA data, 3) Market model for

ML-007 in schizophrenia, 4) Conversations with KOLs.

WHAT´S PRICED IN?

Using our model framework, current valuation prices in PoS <30% and '35E sales

$300M for ML-007 in schizophrenia (below our est $642M and cons $680M). We

also believe the consensus view underestimates both 1) ML-007's relative value

compared to Cobenfy and 2) Registrational scale of Ph2 trial given size/design,

conferring durability/robustness to any observed safety and efficacy signals.

Muscarinics are the main disruptive agent in

schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a mental health disorder with hallmark symptoms in three general

buckets: positive (psychosis), negative (reduction in normal functioning/social

withdrawal), and cognitive (impaired executive function). The market has historically

been a large and somewhat fragmented playing field where generic antipsychotics are

first-line (1L) as payers generally require step-throughs before reimbursing brands

(Figure 1Theschizophreniamarketisfragmentedandusualyrequiresgenericstep-throughs;Cobenfyisgeneralyprescribedin2/3L).

Maplight's Ph2 candidate, ML-007, is positioned as a novel muscarinic agonist designed