Burlington Stores Inc "1Q26 Preview: We See a Balanced Upside/Downside Skew"

Research evidence excerpt

Burlington Stores Inc "1Q26 Preview: We See a Balanced Upside/Downside Skew"

Industry Data

We built a quarterly multifactor framework to forecast Burlington’s reported

revenue growth using Bloomberg alternative data signals measured on a

comparable year-over-year growth basis, specifically Observed Sales, Observed

Transactions, Observed Customers, and Estimated Visits. To make the relationship

more representative of normalized conditions, we calibrated the model using an ex-

COVID historical sample, excluding the pandemic-disrupted quarters and fitting the

relationship on the remaining periods where these alternative data series can be

compared directly with BURL Sales y/y. We then applied the latest quarterly readings

to that ex-COVID relationship to forecast the quarter ending May 2, 2026, which

points to approximately 12.5% year-over-year revenue growth. In our view, this

approach provides a cleaner read on the underlying linkage between current

operating trends and reported revenue, with Observed Sales remaining the most

important signal and the other variables adding context around demand, customer

activity, and traffic. See Methodology (Figure 23DetailedModelMethodology)

Figure 21: Our Multifactor model which includes Bloomberg Observed Sales,

Observed Transactions, Observed Customers, and Estimated visits points to

BURL's 1Q26 revenue growth +12.5% y/y, 120 bps ahead of the current

consensus forecast of 11.3%.

its points to BURL s 1Q26 revenue grow

th +12.5% y/y, 120 bps ahead of the current c onsensus

wh

del

mo

vis

or

ct Estimated

ifa forecast of 11.3%.

Mult

Our

ich incl udes Blo ombe rg O bser ved Sale s, O bser ved Tran sact ions , Ob serv ed C usto mers , and

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 22: Bloomberg ALTD data correlation

Bloomb erg ALTD da ta correl ation