S&P Global "Market Intelligence Deep Dive Highlights Mispricing; Top Pick..."

Research evidence excerpt

S&P Global "Market Intelligence Deep Dive Highlights Mispricing; Top Pick..."

s proprietary data products, Q1 4.97 4.97

such as Ratings Direct, Credit Analytics, and SNL Financial, and highly sticky Q2E 4.97 4.93

workflow solutions with strong network effects, such as ClearPar and Q3E 4.98 5.08

Debtdomain. Q4E 4.67 4.63

12/26E 19.59 19.62

We see Capital IQ and Capital IQ Pro as vulnerable to AI disruption as GenAI 12/27E 22.08 22.20

increasingly shifts users toward alternative distribution channels (APIs, LLMs), 12/28E 29.00 25.37

reducing the value of desktop solutions. We estimate that desktop VaR is $140mm

Alex Kramm, CFA or 8% of identified segment operating income.

Analyst

Overall, we believe that only 26% of MI revenue (16% of adj. operating income) is alex.kramm@ubs.com

highly vulnerable to AI disruption. This encompasses products that lack proprietary +1-212-713 4060

or contributory data and have workflow solutions that could likely be replaced by Nassime Bildman, CFA

agentic AI, such as Tax Solutions and Corporate Actions. Lastly, ~3% of MI revenue Analyst

(2% of adj operating income) is likely to be completely disintermediated by AI. nassime.bildman@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1451

Valuation: SOTP suggests Market Intelligence is undervalued; reiterate Buy Abbie Erler

Our SOTP analysis suggests that the market is assigning MI just a 7x 2027 P/E within Associate Analyst

SPGI’s current 19x 2027E P/E multiple, which we view as overly conservative given MI’s abbie.erler@ubs.com

relatively resilient positioning against AI. Moreover, this also compares to a much higher +1-212-713 4186

12x multiple for FDS, which is widely viewed as most disruptable. Reiterate Buy rating

and $550 price target: Our price target assumes 25x our FY27 EPS estimate of $22.08.