SPGI - May Issuance Growth Slows After Lapping Tariff Comps; ETD Data Remains Strong

Research evidence excerpt

SPGI - May Issuance Growth Slows After Lapping Tariff Comps; ETD Data Remains Strong

Business and Information Services

S&P GLOBAL, INC. (SPGI) June 15, 2026

SPGI - May Issuance Growth Slows After Lapping Tariff Rating:

Comps; ETD Data Remains Strong Outperform

Price:

$424.07

●After Monday's close, SPGI reported monthly issuance and ETD volume Price Target:

$515 trends; we offer quick takeaways below: % Upside:

21.4%

●Following elevated growth in April (+43% y/y) off of the tariff comps, billed Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

issuance growth slowed to 15% y/y in May (Exhibit 1). Though the slowdown Priced as of 06/15/26

was better than what DealLogic data implied throughout May (see our prior

thoughts here), we highlight a notable step-up in the June compare (+13%

y/y vs. -8% in May '25). That said, SPGI's billed issuance guide continues

to embed multiple areas of conservatism including hyperscaler capex (we

highlight related issuance is running 50% higher vs. last year and SPGI's original Scott Wurtzel

guide embedded ~$250bn), better realized M&A, and greater refinance pull- swurtzel@wolferesearch.com

forward. In addition, we believe the combination of slightly lower long-end (646) 582-9313 View SPGI Model

yields since mid-May and HY spreads near historic tights remain conducive to

a healthy issuance environment. To the extent recent Iran headlines continue Darrin Peller dpeller@wolferesearch.com

to trend favorably, we see room for yields to ease which could lead to a more (646) 582-9310

orderly issuance environment as we look into 2H26. For reference, the Street is View Darrin’s Research

modeling ~10.5% Ratings revenue growth for this quarter. Cameron Dyer

cdyer@wolferesearch.com

646-582-9337

●Indices ADV growth accelerated to 23% y/y in May from -3% in April after