Verra Mobility Corp: Avis Termination Erases Perceived Moat

Research evidence excerpt

Verra Mobility Corp: Avis Termination Erases Perceived Moat

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Verra -MobilityVerraCorpMobility(VRRM.O) Corp (VRRM.O)

Travel recovery beneficiary but largely baked into market expectations

PRICE TARGET $4.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Our price target is derived from our base case valuation of approximately 5x our 2027 SBC- ▪Verra maintains a leading position across

burdened EPS estimate. Our multiple is at a discount to where VRRM has historically traded its Commercial Services tolling platform,

given the significant RAC customer loss effective September 2026 and margin pressure Government Solutions traffic enforcement

associated with the NYC contract, offset by generally encouraging momentum in business, and newly acquired Parking

Government Solutions over the past few years. Solutions segment. With the company

having largely moved past Covid-related $22.50

disruptions, investors have increasingly

Consensus Price Target Distribution $4.00 $28.00 viewed the business as benefiting from

MS PT

steady underlying growth and favorableSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates secular mobility trends, though the recent

Avis contract loss raises questions around

the durability of Commercial Services' moat

RISK REWARD CHART and growth trajectory.

▪Long term catalysts for accelerated and

compounding top line growth at VRRM

USD include new state legislation, Europe,

connected fleet, and curb management.

Consensus Rating Distribution

18 75% Overweight

25% Equal-weight

$13.08$13.08$13.08 0% Underweight

MS Rating

$7.00$7.00(-46.48%)$7.00(-46.48%)(-46.48%)

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

$4.00$4.00(-69.42%)$4.00(-69.42%)(-69.42%)

Risk Reward Themes

0 $2.00$2.00(-84.71%)$2.00(-84.71%)(-84.71%) Secular Growth: Positive