Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLSS: "Rates Have Skyrocketed...Finally!"

Research evidence excerpt

Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLSS: "Rates Have Skyrocketed...Finally!"

Update

May 27, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Truck Stop/TLSS: "Rates Have Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Skyrocketed...Finally!" Madison J Pasterchick

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

All current indices saw outperformance as 2026 TL rate

Freight Transportation

expectations jumped to up +6.3% reaching highs last seen in the North America

height of COVID tightness. Commentary was overwhelmingly Industry View Attractive

"green" as the tight environment continues to lead to rate Select quotes from our survey…

increases and trucking capacity exiting amid recent regulation. • "Good carriers are having competition for their

capacity. Poor carriers and poor brokers are still

left begging for freight. The cream of the

operating crop is rising to the top. Current spring

OTR bid is resulting in increases of overall ~9%. It

will be interesting to see how the intermodal

season works out. " (Shipper)

MS TLQURE: We have updated our QURE model for the month of May and vs. our

• “The FMCSA is quickly closing all the avenues for

prior model to account for a structural shift in market dynamics that has emerged

corner cutting in the TL space. The SCOTUS just

since 2023. Our new base case prediction is that truck rates will move to $2.11 in 6

leveled the playing field for brokers vs. assets.

months (currently $2.12) and move to $2.26 in 12 months. Please find the full

Shippers, prepare your organizations for major

updated MS TLQURE forecast in Section 4, additional detail on our updated model