Video | Spring Training: Sustainability

Research evidence excerpt

Video | Spring Training: Sustainability

IdeaM

Energy Security in Focus

Energy security is in focus. Whilst the pace of decarbonisation may have changed, the direction of travel has not.

Energy security in focus: ‘The Politics of Energy’ is one of our 10 Thematic Predictions for 2026. Recent geopolitical tensions and energy supply

shocks have brought energy security into focus this year. Ultimately, energy security concerns should support investment in renewables and nuclear.

Though elevated oil and gas prices pose a risk of decarbonisation policy softening as governments seek to alleviate near-term price pressures.

A change in pace of decarbonisation, rather than a change in direction: In Europe, security and competitiveness have moved up the priority list for

policymakers. Even prior to the Iran conflict, a more flexible approach to carbon policy was emerging, as EUA carbon prices surpassed €90/t and the

practical challenges of meeting emissions targets became more apparent. While decarbonisation has been deprioritised relative to other ambitions, it

has not disappeared completely, and we view the shift as a change in pace rather than a change in direction.

Carbon price outlook: There is robust EU support for the Emissions Trading Average cost of industrial decarbonisation vs MS EUA carbon forecasts

System (ETS) and the recently implemented Carbon Border Adjustment (€/t CO2)

Mechanism (CBAM), though some changes to these mechanisms are 400

expected this year, with the ETS Directive review scheduled for July. In the MS

base case, EUA carbon prices remain range-bound between €60-80/t in 2026,

easing to the high €60s/low €70s in 2027-29, before rising to €90/t in 2030. 300

CBAM and the economics of decarbonisation: CBAM started on 1 January