European Food Producers: Feedback: Expert Call on Cocoa and Coffee Outlooks

Research evidence excerpt

European Food Producers: Feedback: Expert Call on Cocoa and Coffee Outlooks

aining a large amount of coffee over the past six months, supported by

very high prices that allowed some producers to cover costs with relatively

limited sales. However, Expana estimates that ~35-40% of the farmer

population are less financially flexible and may need to sell coffee near term

to cover costs. Their view is that this coffee is likely to come to market

relatively quickly if prices continue to soften, as farmers become more

concerned about being able to sell their crop. Lower prices may also force

farmers to sell more volume to cover the same costs, potentially reinforcing

downwards pressure on prices. Expana also noted that exporters appear to

be in a relatively comfortable position, with the onus currently on producers

rather than the trade.

• Forward curve pressure and potential return to contango. Expana expects

the forward curve to come under pressure quite quickly if Brazilian farmers

begin selling more actively. Farmers are expected to sell as far forward as

possible, looking to lock in prices before the new crop weighs further on the

market. However, buying interest for nearby/current-crop coffee appears

limited, as importers expect new-crop coffee to be cheaper and do not want

to carry expensive stocks through the July period. This is contributing to

falling certified stocks, but Expana’s view is that this reflects reluctance to

hold nearby coffee in a falling market, rather than a genuine lack of coffee.

• Demand shift towards Robusta. Overall coffee demand has not collapsed,

but Expana sees limited growth and a clear shift in mix towards Robusta and

cheaper origins. In Europe, they highlighted a move away from Brazil towards

Morgan Stanley Research 3