Still unattractive risk/reward

Research evidence excerpt

Still unattractive risk/reward

Hafnia Ltd

Unattractive risk/reward despite recent sell-off

According to ship tracking data, exports of both crude and products have stabilised in

past weeks. In the crude tanker market, global crude exports are again above 40m bpd

and closing in on the lows seen at the start of 2025. With the US having started to release

SPRs, which spend 2-3x longer time at sea compared to Middle East exports, crude oil-

on-water remains higher y-o-y, albeit 8% lower than at the start of this year. Product export

volumes have also fallen by around 10% since the closure of the Hormuz Strait. However,

the disruption has merely returned global flows to levels last seen in 2025, while refinery

margins have reached highs not experienced since the early days following Russia's

invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Overall, the high rates — with VLCC rates from Oman and the US at around USD 100-150k/

day, Suezmax and Aframax at approximately USD 65k/day and USD 50k/day, respectively,

and MR at USD 30k/day — indicate that fleet utilisation remains tight enough for shipowners

to capture much of the geographical arbitrage. That said, we note that rates for most vessel

sizes are now declining week-on-week, and that there is a considerable spread in tanker

rates.

As highlighted in recent research (see e.g. our 5 May Shipping Daily), we view the current

state of the tanker market, with a significant disruption in oil supply but no full stop in the

~15m bpd that normally passes the Strait of Hormuz, as close to a "best-case" scenario, as

the higher oil price, coupled with genuine concerns about a shortfall in prompt oil deliveries,

has led to an extraordinary increase in willingness to pay for transportation.