Q4/F26; Civil Headwinds Weigh; Long-term Upside Requires More Patience

Research evidence excerpt

Q4/F26; Civil Headwinds Weigh; Long-term Upside Requires More Patience

): C$10,159 as expected. We believe the company may have taken a prudently conservative approach

Enterprise Value

C$12,840.6 to F2030 guide. This approach combined with excess capital for M&A, organic investments

(MM):

BV/Share: C$16.49 and shareholder returns could lead to a higher earnings trajectory than currently forecast and

Dividend: C$0.00 share price upside well beyond our current target.

Yield: 0.0% F2027 guide implies significant margin compression, not surprising directionally given

General: The data above (excl. 12-month dividend estimate transformation plan/ME conflict impacts. As results are produced, investors should shift focus

and float shares) reflects FactSet data. Refer to our comp

table for TD Cowen's calculation. forward to long-term revenue quality, cash generation, and the improving ROIC. Our F2030

forecasts are in-line with company targets. Upside potential from M&A, share repurchases,

FY 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E dividend and strong Defense backdrop that could produce significant contracts.

(Mar)

EBITDA Q4/F26 Civil revenue was slightly above forecast, though adj. EBIT was lower (-19% vs.

forecast). Training headwinds and the impact from the Middle East conflict/jet fuel prices on

Year C$1,146.7 C$1,170.8 C$1,197.6 C$1,260.5

customer operations are pressuring margins more than expected. Headwinds expected to

Prior Year - C$1,191.3 C$1,251.1 C$1,300.9

continue through at least H1/F27.

EPS (f.d.) CAE reported a strong Defense quarter (10.2% EBIT margin vs. 8.1% forecast). The defense

Q1 C$0.21 C$0.21 C$0.24 - outlook is strong on many fronts, and we view CAE's local presence in key markets as

Prior Q1 - - - providing a strong position for capitalizing on the outlook.