Q2/26 Big Canadian Banks - What to Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Q2/26 Big Canadian Banks - What to Watch

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA SECTOR NOTE

May 22, 2026

■Financial Services - Banks Q2/26 Big Canadian Banks - What to Watch

Mario Mendonca, CFA, CA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 308 2361

This bank reporting season, the focus of our notes will be on the key debates with the greatest

mario.mendonca@tdsecurities.com

potential to move estimates and sentiment on the stocks. With that in mind, below, we lay

Masa Song^ out the issues we expect to focus on next week (Q2/26 reporting). We expect Q2/26 results

416 982 5452 to remain healthy (see our preview here), but we believe investors need to see positive EPS

masa.song@tdsecurities.com

revisions to push stocks higher.

Fernando Torrealba Tesi, CFA^

416 983 2664 ■BMO: As the bank completes US B/S optimization in Q2, we focus on 1) US loan growth and

fernando.torrealbatesi@tdsecurities.com NIM improvement, 2) US CMRR (durability of US backdrop), 3) commentary on further B/S

optimization following BMO's strategic sale of Transportation Finance (see our take here), 4)

credit (mass market exposure), and 5) NCIB.

❍Key risk is if consumer credit worsens.

■BNS: We expect BNS to miss consensus modestly, reflecting weak international loan growth

and lower Canadian loan growth outside mortgages. We focus on 1) international NIM's

momentum (likely above the 440-450bps guided range), 2) credit outlook (less confident

that PCLs will decline in H2/26), and 3) whether fee income can offset weak loan growth

(recall BNS guided double-digit growth in Canadian Banking fee income).

❍Key risk remains that BNS is viewed as a slower-than-expected growth bank with

elevated credit. BNS agreed with our take that our banks are more exposed to FICC vs.

Equity trading.