VRT: Analyst Mtg Takeaways: Hyper-Growth with a Bull Case

Research evidence excerpt

VRT: Analyst Mtg Takeaways: Hyper-Growth with a Bull Case

us at high-teens, EPS, Adj Diluted Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

operating margin of 27% (matching expectations), and implied +$17 2030 2025 0.64A 0.95A 1.24A 1.36A

2026 1.17A 1.40E 1.81E 2.02E EPS or 22% upside vs. pre-event consensus. While these are decidedly 2027 1.51E 1.99E 2.42E 2.67E

impressive growth/profitability metrics, we see some conservatism baked Revenue

in. Management is assuming 30% incrementals (vs. its 38% average since 2025 2,036.0A 2,638.1A 2,675.8A 2,880.0A

2021) and is not including M&A or buybacks with its estimated $28 billion 2026 2,649.5A 3,368.1E 3,710.0E 4,081.1E

2027 3,392.7E 4,403.0E 4,671.8E 5,075.5E in capital. Management highlighted an active funnel of potential bolt-

on deals with a strong balance sheet currently at just 0.2x net leverage. All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

“Evolutionary” deals driving +15% ROIC could add another $4.00-$4.50 Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

EPS, netting to a bull case $21-$22 EPS in 2030, 50% above consensus.

Hyperscalers/colos are increasingly seeking scale and speed for “time to

first token” and “token per watt/second”, driving Vertiv’s innovations in

pre-fabricated converged infrastructure solutions. System-level integration

leads to further co-engineering/designing for the next-gen GPU clusters

and 800VDC environments, ultimately calling for more services.

Biggest Surprise: Pre-fab converged infrastructure solutions and services

as a moat. We were impressed to see SmartRun (pre-fab white space

systems) for the next-gen GPU clusters being built at Pelzer, SC. Higher

voltage, rack density, and complexity for purpose-built AI datacenters are

making services as equally important for early customer partnership.