TGT: 1Q'26 Review - Evidence of Organic Progress Somewhat Masked by One-Time Tailwinds

Research evidence excerpt

TGT: 1Q'26 Review - Evidence of Organic Progress Somewhat Masked by One-Time Tailwinds

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Steven Shemesh (Analyst)

(212) 428-2390, steven.shemesh@rbccm.com

Harshi Rasania (Senior Associate)

(212) 299-9859, harshi.rasania@rbccm.com

Joshua Thornton (Associate)

(917) 891-0802, joshua.thornton@rbccm.com

May 20, 2026

Target Corporation Outperform

NYSE: TGT; USD 122.33RESEARCH 1Q'26 Review - Evidence of Organic Progress Price Target USD 153.00 ↑ 132.00

Somewhat Masked by One-Time Tailwinds Scenario Analysis*

Our view: TGT posted a strong beat and raise qtr with comp sales +5.6%

(cons. +2.2% / buyside +4-5%) and adj. EPS +32% y/y to $1.71 (cons. DownsideScenario CurrentPrice TargetPrice ScenarioUpside

$1.43). We attribute this to a combination of organizational changes driving

a better consumer experience and the one-off tailwind of increased tax 104.0011% 122.33 153.0029% 171.0043%

refunds y/y. The debate from here is two fold: 1) With tax refunds in the

*Implied Total ReturnsEQUITY rearview and inflationary pressures mounting, what level of growth can we Key Statistics

expect moving forward?; and 2) Given mgmt raised net sales guidance, but Shares O/S (MM): 455.1 Market Cap (MM): 55,672

simply pointed EPS delivery towards the high-end of the range, does that Dividend: 4.54 Yield: 3.7%

imply incremental cost pressure? In short, we expect comp to decelerate Avg. Daily Volume: 4,870,508

q/q and some modest incremental margin pressure given higher fuel costs, RBC Estimates

but would argue investors are too focused on near-term buyside #s coming FY Jan 2025A 2026E 2027E

down, and not focused enough on the tangible change we've seen across Revenue (B) 104.8 109.3 113.9

the organization to date, which should lead to more sustainable top-line Prev. 107.4 112.0