Energy Daily-05/20/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Daily-05/20/2026

Energy Daily

20 MAY 2026

• With the share down ~7% yesterday, we estimate an implied value per jackup

of USD 130–135m by YE26, compared to USD ~175m at the post-COVID

peak in mid-2023.

• We remain constructive on jackup market fundamentals. While current

contract economics lag other offshore segments, marketed utilisation

remains solid at ~87%. The fragmented supply base implies that higher

utilisation is needed to restore pricing power, however, the market appears

within reach of structural undersupply (mid-90% utilisation), which could

trigger rapid dayrate escalation, as seen in 2H23.

• For this to materialize, we likely need to see outstanding Middle East tenders

begin to close (currently pushed to the right). The orderbook remains

effectively depleted (~2%), while ~25% of the fleet is 40+ years old

DOFG – Vessel run aground offshore Brazil on Friday

• Large AHTS Skandi Amazonas (on charter with Petrobras) suffered a hull

breach and was deliberately grounded offshore Brazil on Friday May 15. This

has been picked up by local Brazilian and some international maritime press

over the weekend but seems underreported

• The vessel earns USD ~73k/day gross and with opex largely fixed in the near

term. Downtime would thus run straight through to cash flow. The extent of

damages, downtime and repair costs remains unclear, but the vessel and

charter is insured. Assuming the vessel is out the remainder of the year, we

expect to lower '26e EBITDA by ~0.8%. Skandi Amazonas accounts for ~1.6%

of our 2027e EBITDA

• No press release from the company yet, likely due to the limited impact to

2026 figures

Other news

• ARCH – The shares in Archer Limited will be traded ex cash distribution of

NOK 0.62 as from today, May 20, 2026.