Teekay Tankers-Sailing to negative EV-05/20/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Teekay Tankers-Sailing to negative EV-05/20/2026

$80,000/day, and an aframax for a year at $60,000. Both above our H2’26 and Free float (%) 69

2027 estimates (suezmax $62,500 H2, $60,000 2027, aframax $60,000 H2,

$50,000 2027) – and thus with positive impact overall. More importantly though,

this locks in more FCF for TNK, which with its ~14-year-old fleet remains the name

Total Return Indexwith the most operational leverage. To further illustrate this strength; we peg the

average suezmax and aframax at $42m / $35m implicitly priced into today’s share

price – here they lock in ~$25m / $18m of CF each – or 50 – 60% of the implied 190

value of the vessels. Regarding further investments management maintains its 180

170course; we should not be expecting anything major either on the acquisition or 160

divestment side, but rather a continued selective approach. 150

Still an intriguing valuation – BUY, TP $95 maintained 130

While the values of 15Y old tankers have surged this year – and there is more 120

uncertainty than ever – this near-term cashflow generation is too strong to ignore. 110

Applying the TC-levels above ($80k / $60k) across TNK’s fleet would yield 90

~$750m of FCF in 2027 (EPS of $19), roughly equal to the scrap-adjusted EV at May-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 May-26

YE’26. No, shareholders are not receiving that cash in dividends (at least not much Teekay Tankers S&P 500

of it), but with (literally) billions of dollars in spending power there will be a massive Source: FactSet

increase in earnings days at some point. We maintain BUY TP $95; 0.85x our

YE’26 NAV – with higher dividends the catalyst to improved pricing.

USDm 2024 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Revenues 731 634 941 753 665

EBITDA 431 303 599 431 349

EBIT 369 310 554 336 252