Stellantis NV: Postcard from CMD: Strong plan, but too many optimistic assumptions

Research evidence excerpt

Stellantis NV: Postcard from CMD: Strong plan, but too many optimistic assumptions

stment Opinion C-3-8 / C-3-8

Our view: Some assumptions are too optimistic 52-Week Range 5.31 EUR-10.49 EUR

While the 2030 plan also includes some conservative assumptions, such as unchanged Market Value (mn) 19,805 EUR

tariffs between the US and Mexico, and while the cost-cutting assumptions should be at Shares Outstanding (mn) 3,140.1 / 3,140.1

least partly achievable, we think the most aggressive part is the assumption that Average Daily Value (mn) 225.08 USD

Stellantis can gain market share globally while keeping pricing broadly flat. As outlined in Free Float 57.1%

our recent report (see: China’s expansion in Europe is accelerating), China’s expansion in BofA Ticker / Exchange XVWGF / MIL

Europe is accelerating, we think Chinese OEMs are only just beginning to gain significant BofA Ticker / Exchange STLA / NYS

market share outside China, with the US the main exception. This implies that legacy Bloomberg / Reuters STLAM IM / STLAM.MI

OEMs have already lost market share and are likely to continue losing share, as Chinese ROE (2026E) 1.6%

OEMs typically offer stronger “value for money” products. Against this backdrop, we are Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) 25.3%

most sceptical on the growth assumptions for Europe, MEA and South America. Without

meaningful volume growth and with negative pricing, we think the 2028 AOI margin

could be closer to 3% rather than the targeted 5%. In such a scenario, capacity

utilisation would also not improve as planned and expected cost savings would likely be Glossary:

lower. Finally, we note that the targeted 7% capex and R&D/sales ratio does not look AOI: Adjusted operating income

particularly high versus most European peers.