Stellantis (1K) | Hold | Adjusting estimates and TP ahead of Q2 print

Research evidence excerpt

Stellantis (1K) | Hold | Adjusting estimates and TP ahead of Q2 print

than we

recovery supported by cost actions. expect. The key US pickup segment may drop in a recessionary

Catalysts environment. The pricing environment may also deteriorate,

Monthly registrations and production data. notably for BEVs.

Next set of results. Rapidly rising input costs and adverse forex may negatively

Regular products and technology events during the year. impact our estimates at some point.

The integration of Peugeot and FCA into Stellantis may prove

more challenging than we anticipate, as well as the launch of

new partnerships.

Key data charts

Price performance Sales split by region Sales split by division

SWOT analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

Proven track record of integration focused on returns. Chinese presence limited, Leapmotor deal a step toward resolving this.

Constant attention to breakeven point and relative cost base. Overall exposure to APAC is limited with no clear strategy for now.

Well-oiled European and US businesses regaining commercial traction. Most of the profit comes from just two mature markets.

Solid FCF capabilities on expected EBITDA gains and measured spending. NAFTA product portfolio has large gaps, notably mid-sized SUVs.

Opportunities Threats

Leapmotor product launches in Europe to support CO2 metrics. CO2 regulation requires constant costs adjustments and investments.

Synergies in Europe and LatAm should support margins. New competition in the key US pick-up segment, notably electric.

Scale benefits to allow for higher absolute capex and R&D. New entrants from China or Tech may reduce the global profit pool.

Higher end brands like Alfa, Jeep, DS or Maserati may be better used. Execution of the merger may be a challenge with many new managers.