On Target in Q1; Sustainability Is the Real Bullseye

Research evidence excerpt

On Target in Q1; Sustainability Is the Real Bullseye

Margin expansion from high-quality drivers. Digital

flywheel accelerating. Merchandising resets resonating across priority categories. Inventory productivity & in-stocks improving

together. Tariff rebate boost potential. It is the linchpin of the quarter and the strongest evidence yet that merchandising/in-

stocks/value messaging are landing – growth was broad-based across stores and digital, all six core categories, and every income

cohort. Beyond traffic, four other points stood out: Margin expansion from high-quality drivers: GM +80 bps Y/Y to 29% on supply-

chain productivity, lower markdowns, and growth in high-margin Roundel/Target Plus revenue, which we view as sustainable mix-

shift tailwinds, not one-time benefits. Digital flywheel accelerating – 1P digital +9%, same-day delivery +27%, and Target Plus GMV

+60%. TGT is finally monetizing convenience in a manner more comparable to its larger peers. Merchandising resets resonating

across priority categories – Baby comps accelerated ~5pp post-concierge/refresh; ~1,500 new wellness items drove double-digit

wellness comps; 3,000 new food items sold >50% above the prior assortment; Pokémon and Parke/Roller Rabbit drops set launch-

week records; toys posted another double-digit comp on a $20-and-under push. Inventory productivity & in-stocks improving

together – Turns +10% Y/Y, top-item availability up Y/Y, and management is already chasing inventory to support the raised top-

line… historically Target's biggest execution risk, now a clear tailwind. We estimate Tariff Rebates could be $1bn+ for Target, (see

our note from yesterday here for more) helping fund investments in pricing and store labor with modest flow through likely.