SMART at 3-Yrs: Better Hemodynamics, Hard Clinical Endpoint Wins Remain Elusive

Research evidence excerpt

SMART at 3-Yrs: Better Hemodynamics, Hard Clinical Endpoint Wins Remain Elusive

TD Cowen Medtronic

Global Research May 21, 2026

AT A GLANCE

Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts

Our Buy rating on Medtronic (MDT) is driven by our optimistic outlook on the sustainability ■ Quarterly results

of a mid-single-digit top-line growth trajectory through FY26 onward. We expect pipeline ■ PFA/RDN/UI product launches

growth drivers to likely become more of a focus for investors and these products to contribute ■ Rollout of the Hugo soft tissue robotic

meaningfully in the first full year of commercialization. Our view is that the new Medtronic will system

continue to be a top-tier top- and bottom-line growth performer in the medical device space.

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

■ Sustained adoption of MDT's EP portfolio ■ CAS achieves $2B target ahead of F1H27 ■ Failure to achieve CAS $2B target by

■ Strong adoption of MDT's TAVR portfolio ■ Rollout and adoption of Symplicity and F1H27

in the U.S. Altaviva stronger than expected ■ Delays in Symplicity and Altaviva

■ Maintaining CRM and DES market share in ■ CRM/DES market share gains worldwide adoption

the U.S. return to growth by the spine franchise ■ New competitor entrants pressure existing

MDT offerings and weaken demand

Price Performance Company Description

Medtronic is a diversified medical technology, services, and solutions company with a

$120

presence in more than 150 countries. Medtronic operates in four segments: Cardiovascular,

Neuroscience, Medical Surgical, and Diabetes. Within Cardiovascular are Cardiac Rhythm &

110 Heart Failure, Structural Heart & Aortic, Coronary & Peripheral Vascular. Within Neuroscience

are Cranial and Spinal Technologies, Specialty Therapies, and Neuromodulation.