April U.S. Housing Starts/Permits Above Consensus; Single-Family Weakness

Research evidence excerpt

April U.S. Housing Starts/Permits Above Consensus; Single-Family Weakness

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA QUICK TAKE: INDUSTRY UPDATE

May 21, 2026

■Paper & Forest Products April U.S. Housing Starts/Permits Above

Consensus; Single-Family Weakness

Sean Steuart, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 308 3399

The U.S. Census Bureau released April 2026 U.S. new home construction data this morning.

sean.steuart@tdsecurities.com

April housing starts were 1.465 million units (SAAR), 3.9% above consensus of 1.410 million

Kasia Trzaski Kopytek, CFA, CPA, CA^ units. April starts declined 2.8% m/m versus a strong March comparison. Generally slower new

416 983 4058 home construction corresponds with a sustained weak wood product pricing backdrop.

kasia.trzaski@tdsecurities.com

Context on wood product demand. In 2025, U.S. new home construction consumed an

estimated 31% of North American lumber volume and 56% of North American-oriented

strand board (OSB) volume.

Lumber-exposed equities: West Fraser (WFG-N, T), Canfor (CFP-T), Interfor (IFP-T), Western

Forest Products (WEF-T), Mercer International (MERC-US), Doman Building Materials Group

(DBM-T).

OSB-exposed equities: Louisiana-Pacific (LPX-N), West Fraser (WFG-N, T).

Slowing April starts reflect higher mortgage rates and weaker consumer confidence. March

starts had reached a two-year high but permits weakened, foreshadowing April's weaker starts

data. Overall, the housing market remains volatile and constrained by affordability (Figure 1).

The latest views on U.S. housing from TD Cowen's Global Strategy team HERE: expect

subdued 2026 absent rate relief and starts of 1.415 million units in 2026 and 1.445 million units

in 2027.

Home builder confidence remains weak. The May reading for the NAHB/Wells Fargo single-