MTP 2026–28: “Fourth Founding” Phase; AI/Data Center Drives Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

MTP 2026–28: “Fourth Founding” Phase; AI/Data Center Drives Earnings

g cash flow of ¥620bn. Investment is heavily

skewed toward optical infrastructure, including capacity expansion for SWR/WTC cables,

with production capacity expected to increase >4x vs FY3/23 levels (Japan/US combined).

Notably, the company has been selected as a supplier for US AI infrastructure projects,

where demand for optical fiber cables is estimated at $20bn (¥3tn) at the time of the

announcement in Oct 2025, highlighting a significant external growth tailwind. Additional

investments target superconductors, fiber lasers, and next-generation technologies (e.g., CPO,

photonics-electronics convergence), reinforcing long-term optionality beyond DC.

Capital allocation and returns: balanced growth reinvestment with enhanced shareholder

returns. Fujikura plans cumulative shareholder returns of ¥220bn over FY3/27–29, with a

payout ratio target of 40%, alongside continued investment in growth and strategic domains.

The company targets maintaining an equity ratio of 50%, reflecting disciplined balance sheet

management despite elevated capex. Compared to the prior plan (¥73.7bn returns over

FY3/24–26), this represents a material step-up, supported by stronger earnings visibility and

cash generation from DC-related businesses.

Our view: strong DC exposure, but execution and supply visibility remain key. We view the

new MTP as a continuation of Fujikura’s strong execution, with a clear pivot to AI/data center

infrastructure supporting both earnings and capital efficiency. The combination of capacity

expansion, end-to-end solution capability, and exposure to US hyperscaler demand positions

the company well to capture structural growth. However, the plan increases reliance on a single