Gas markets Hormuz disruption: Europe’s refill needs underpin upside risk

Research evidence excerpt

Gas markets Hormuz disruption: Europe’s refill needs underpin upside risk

21 May 2026

Equities & Commodities

Global Gas markets

z s p : E p ’s f s p

upside risk

◆ TTF up c30% since mid-April; upside risks persist Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

◆ European storage injections down c30% in May vs 5-yr average HSBC Bank plc

sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

◆ We maintain our 2026 TTF forecast of USD16/mBtu +44 207 9910569

Kim Fustier*

Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst

Gas prices have steadily increased: European gas prices have been steadily rising HSBC Bank plc

over the course of the past few weeks, with month-ahead TTF at cUSD17/mBtu, up c30% kim.fustier@hsbc.com

+44 20 3359 2136

since the trough of mid-April. As we highlighted in our last update, we believed the price

risk was skewed to the upside given a multitude of factors, including Europe’s gas Charles Swabey*

Global Utilities & Renewables Analyst

injection needs, Asian heatwaves, and LNG plant outages; all of which, have contributed HSBC Bank plc

to the recent price action (see Gas markets: Hormuz “open”, LNG still stuck, 21 April). charles.swabey@hsbc.com

+44 20 3268 3954

On the positive side: The price increase has actually been relatively modest, Evan Li*

benefiting from China’s LNG imports dropping c15% y/y from mid-April to mid-May Head,The HongkongAsia Energyand ShanghaiTransitionBankingResearchCorporation Limited

and Asian demand overall declining c8% y/y. This has certainly enabled Europe to evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

secure more flexible LNG cargoes. Separately, a couple of LNG cargoes have +852 2996 6619

managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, which comes as a Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst