Global Transport Impact of Middle East conflict – X

Research evidence excerpt

Global Transport Impact of Middle East conflict – X

21 May 2026

Equities

Transport Global Transport

Impact of Middle East conflict – X Global

◆ Tanker rates soften further as too many ships chase alternative Parash Jain*

Atlantic supplies; some routes now below pre-conflict levels Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

parashjain@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Container trade remains strong going in 2Q; dry bulk is thriving +852 2996 6717

on long-haul Guinean bauxite and iron ore exports to China Deepak Maurya*, CFA

Analyst, Asia Transport

◆ Asian hub airlines reported strong April traffic while jet fuel deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk

spreads eased; upbeat tanker rates lift shipbuilding orders +852 2822 4292

Bruce Chu*, CFA

Middle East oil deficit compounds: Strait of Hormuz (SoH) transits remain volatile The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

and constrained (avg. 11 daily transits in May so far). Global seaborne crude exports bruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6621

eased to under 35mbd in the past two weeks (vs avg. 36mbd in Apr and 45mbd in Jan-

Feb, exhibit 14). The US has acted as a swing supplier (>5mbd vs 3.7mbd in Jan-Feb), Cathy Huang*, CFA Associate, Asia Transport

adding ton-miles but not enough to offset the Middle East shortfall; Kpler estimates a The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

90bn crude ton-mile (10%) monthly deficit. Chinese crude imports fell by >3mbd in April cathy.m.y.huang@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 4506

(vs Jan-Feb), partly narrowing oil supply constraints but weighing on tanker demand.

Kevin Li*

Associate

Tanker rates continue to soften, falling below pre-conflict on non-MEG routes: Guangzhou

Average VLCC rates are down 35% from the 3 March peak. Middle East Gulf (MEG)