US-China/Japan-China relations: updates & outlook under Xi

Research evidence excerpt

US-China/Japan-China relations: updates & outlook under Xi

19 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Economics / Domestic and Overseas Economy

Seminar Memo

Global Economy & Finance Seminar Summary

This report summarizes an 18 May seminar given by Daisuke Kondo, deputyChief Economist:

editor of Kodansha’s Gendai Business, regarding the state of US-China andShunsuke Kobayashi

Japan-China relations and the latest developments and outlook under the Xi+81 3 6202 8222

shunsuke.kobayashi@mizuho-sc.com Jinping administration. We first summarize Mr. Kondo’s insights regarding the

latest developments in China from the perspective of diplomacy, politics, and

Economist: the economy, and then look at his outlook for Japan-China relations going

Soichiro Hirose forward.+81 3 6202 8293

soichiro.hirose@mizuho-sc.com Diplomacy: building a “two superpower era” with the US

A US-China summit was held in Beijing on 14–15 May. It seems China had

initially planned to mediate between Iran and the US at this meeting and

extract concessions from Washington but apparently abandoned this effort.

Instead, China appears to have pivoted toward creating a “two superpower era

for the US and China”. China’s pursuit of a mediating role reflects the depth

of Iran-China relations. Iran and China had grown closer through Chinese

investment in Iran and purchases of Iranian power after US President Donald

Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. However, according to Chinese

government officials, China dropped the mediation effort because Iranian

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who visited China on 6 May, proved more

hardline than expected.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech on the first day confirmed the strategy

for staging a “two-superpower era for the US and China”. Three points stand