Oil refiners/distributors: FY3/26 earnings review

Research evidence excerpt

Oil refiners/distributors: FY3/26 earnings review

19 May 2026

Mizuho Securities Equity Research Energy / Oil

Industry Overview

Upbeat on stable supply capabilities; focus on prospects for resuming exports

Senior Analyst: Summary

Norimasa Shinya In this report, we summarize the key takeaways from the FY3/26 results

+81 3 6202 8313 announcements and briefings of oil refiners/distributors under our coverage.

norimasa.shinya@mizuho-sc.com With respect to FY3/27 earnings guidance, on the surface all companies

except Eneos Holdings issued guidance below our respective forecasts.Analyst:

However, given the uncertain business environment stemming from the StraitKanato Isobe

of Hormuz closure, we are upbeat on the fact that all companies at least issued+81 3 6202 8140

kanato.isobe@mizuho-sc.com earnings guidance based on certain crude oil price assumptions. Aside from

earnings results, Eneos Holdings announced that it will acquire Chevron’s

downstream petroleum businesses in Southeast Asia and Australia, while

Idemitsu Kosan unveiled its new medium-term business plan. In both cases,

however, we think the news will gradually be priced in from the perspective

of longer-term growth potential rather than as near-term stock price catalysts.

One positive factor we highlight is that all the companies under our coverage

indicated at this juncture that they are largely set in terms of ability to procure

the crude oil they need to maintain stable supplies of petroleum products.

Although it is obviously unclear whether this would be sustainable if the

closure of the Strait of Hormuz were to drag on indefinitely, we note that

refiners currently have the ability to continue supplying product thanks to their

diversification of crude oil procurement sources, and both Eneos and Idemitsu