Rolling AI Asset Bubbles

Research evidence excerpt

Rolling AI Asset Bubbles

using blunt 600

instruments (like rates) to attack problems that are mostly supply not 400

demand driven. Unlike the 1970s, inflationary spikes are not caused by 2000

overheating of economies, labor or property markets. We thus continue Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Apr-20 Sep-20 Feb-21 Jul-21 Dec-21 May-22 Oct-22 Mar-23 Aug-23 Jan-24 Jun-24 Nov-24 Apr-25 Sep-25 Feb-26

to expect volatile but not consistently high or low inflation and rates. This MQ Global Replacement of Humans MSCI AC World

implies that a traditional response to inflationary-induced higher rates

(e.g. rotating out of expensive to cheaper and more forgotten niches) will Source: Bloomberg; Macquarie Global Strategy

be unlikely to deliver consistent results. 3. Whenever investors debate

MQ Global "Bullets & Prisons"

"AI asset bubble", it is never clear what is meant by either AI or bubbles. Portfolio

Does this refer to software, hardware, infrastructure or applications?

Portfolio Performances ($ TR, Indexed 7/2016=100)

700This is a problem with any GPT (general purpose technology), as it covers

an ever widening range of activities. First, investors experienced what 600500

400was perceived to be a "software bubble" (i.e. software eating the world),

which then rolled into a perceived LLM and infrastructure bubble (e.g. data 300200

100centers, chips) and, in due course, it will roll into infinite applications (e.g.

robotics, automation, 3-D printing, surveillance, biotech), and finally, it will 0 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Apr-20 Sep-20 Feb-21 Jul-21 Dec-21 May-22 Oct-22 Mar-23 Aug-23 Jan-24 Jun-24 Nov-24 Apr-25 Sep-25 Feb-26

reach the quantum computing frontier (i.e. quantum computing eating

everything else).