ASEAN Plantations

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN Plantations

Macquarie Equity Research

21 May 2026

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

ASEANASEAN Plantations

Rising tailwind from policy disruption

Amanda

Key Points Foo

• Indonesia's new BUMN export mandate creates a supply friction effect.

Meanwhile, NOAA raised probability of El Niño emerging in 3Q26 to

82%. Figure 1 - Indonesia is the top

exporter of palm oil

• The prospective tightening of global supplies lends support to the CPO

price upcycle, though we note regulatory risks for Indonesian planters.

• We keep our earnings and CPO price forecasts unchanged, but apply a

14% Indonesia regulatory discount. SDG is now our top pick.

Policy disruption from Indonesia's BUMN export mandate. Indonesia

President Prabowo has signed a regulation requiring strategic commodity

exports, including CPO, to be routed via a government-designated BUMN

(state-owned enterprise). This effectively centralizes export flows, reducing

private planters' direct access to foreign buyers and increasing dependence

on BUMN pricing and payment terms. The phased rollout is scheduled Source: Oil World, Macquarie Research, May 2026

to begin as soon as 1 June 2026, giving planters limited time to reroute

contracts and onboard BUMN export channels. With Indonesia moving Figure 2 - CPO price reaction to

towards B50 from July 2026, higher domestic usage alongside BUMN- Indonesia's 2022 export restrictive policies

led export centralisation may further constrain global palm oil export

availability.

Meanwhile, El Niño risks are rising. On 14 May, the US National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised its ENSO status to an El

Niño watch, with an 82% probability of El Niño developing between May-July

2026 (vs 61% last month). Australia's BoM also expects continued warming