Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.: Strong Order Growth, Fuel Price Impact Manageable

Research evidence excerpt

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.: Strong Order Growth, Fuel Price Impact Manageable

rties, revenue will be booked in VAT.) We are increasing our Price Performance Exchange-NYSE

freight brokerage revenue estimates while reducing our VAT revenue estimates for the rest of 52 Week range USD 14.07-8.04

FY26. For the loan services segment, YMM is accelerating its shift away to a third-party funding

model. By the end of FY26, we estimate ~80% of the RMB 50bn loan book will become off-

balance, as YMM looks to further isolate itself from credit risk and political risk.

Impact from recent geopolitical unrest appears to be manageable. The surge in oil price has

had a negative impact on order volume growth since late Mar. especially for lower-value

shipment, despite increases in new shippers as they join to compare prices with offline Source: IDC

counterparts. We estimate fuel price has caused ~10% increase in freight fare for shippers, Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

forcing them to put some shipments on hold to wait for fuel price normalization. That said, we

believe most of these postponements will be temporary; therefore, we are keeping our FY26 China Technology

annual fulfilled orders estimate of 269mn (+14% yoy) unchanged, while lowering our 2Q26 Jiong Shao, CFA

fulfilled orders estimate to 68.1mn (+12% yoy) and moving the differences to later Qs. Our 2Q26 +1 212 526 5562

estimate for transaction services revenue is therefore lowered by -1%. Longer term, we think the jiong.shao@barclays.com

current macro challenges could be a positive for the company, as they accelerate online BCI, US

penetration for the entire freight industry, evidenced by average shipper MAU yoy growth Lian Xiu (Roger) Duan