Full Truck Alliance 1Q26 beat, briefing suggests mixed quality—awaiting clear recovery before turning positive

Research evidence excerpt

Full Truck Alliance 1Q26 beat, briefing suggests mixed quality—awaiting clear recovery before turning positive

Asia Pacific Equity Research

21 May 2026

Neutral

Full Truck Alliance YMM, YMM US

Price: $8.46

1Q26 beat, briefing suggests mixed quality—awaiting 20 May 2026

clear recovery before turning positive Price Target: $8.00

PT End Date: 30 Jun 2027

YMM’s 1Q26 print came in ahead of guidance on revenue, orders and profit, but Infrastructure, Industrials &

the read-through remains a mixed bag as the beat sits alongside Y/Y margin Transport

ACcompression and a more cautious near-term demand backdrop tied to oil prices. Karen Li, CFA

The stock is down c.20% YTD (vs. HXC -12%), and the underperformance has (852) 2800-8589

largely tracked the same concerns flagged over the past 9–12 months: regulatory karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

and ecosystem governance overhangs prompting accelerated clean-ups, business- Mufan Shi

model resets in VAT/invoicing brokerage and credit solutions that reduce risk but (852) 2800-8502

dilute reported growth/operating leverage, and a freight demand environment that mufan.shi@jpmorgan.com

remains sensitive to cost shocks. Jenny Qiu, CFA

(852) 2800 8503

The key debate after 1Q is less about whether YMM can beat near-term numbers, jenny.qiu@jpmorgan.com

and more about whether the drivers are repeatable into 2Q–3Q without relying on Beatrice Lam

transient macro volatility. Management linked late-March oil price spikes to an (852) 2800-8738

beatrice.lam@jpmorgan.com

initial lift in online price discovery and freight shifting online, but also flagged J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

that sustained high fuel costs started to pressure low-value cargo volumes from J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

April.