Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#86): The state of global shipping ..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#86): The state of global shipping ..."

Global Research

21 May 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#86): The state of global shipping disruption

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

Limited signs of spillovers to non-energy shipping (so far) arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

In our April 30 note we showed how global oil/gas shipping traffic had fallen by 13%

from pre-Middle East conflict levels—closely matching the disruption through the Strait

of Hormuz—and how the various regions were trying to reroute ships to find alternative

energy supplies. Today's chart examines whether that energy shock is spilling over into

broader shipping activity. A key question is whether fuel shortages are beginning to

weigh on overall trade flows, providing an additional transmission channel to global

supply chains. PMI delivery times have already lengthened by around 1¾ standard

deviations, but it remains unclear how much reflects product shortages versus shipping

constraints.

The chart shows our "momentum" measure of global shipping traffic—defined as

tonnes of cargo multiplied by nautical miles travelled per day. We've aggregated the

daily data at a monthly frequency (May is the average of the daily data month-to-date),

and standardize using z-score over the full sample. Oil and gas shipping has continued to

deteriorate, now around 4 standard deviations below normal. By contrast, non-energy

shipping weakened through April (-2 standard deviations) but has partially recovered in

May (now around -0.7 standard deviations). In level terms, non-energy related shipping/

cargo traffic fell 5% in March (vs the prior 12m average) and 13% in April but is now

back to just 4% below normal. In Asia—where energy shortages appear most acute—