DCH – All About Synergy Execution; GT – Large Raw Mats Headwinds... Volume Outlook Still Unclear

Research evidence excerpt

DCH – All About Synergy Execution; GT – Large Raw Mats Headwinds... Volume Outlook Still Unclear

Wolfe Research Auto Daily

DCH – All About Synergy Execution; GT – Large Raw Mats May 19, 2026

Headwinds... Volume Outlook Still Unclear

The Wolfe Byte

In today's Wolfe Autos Daily: 1) Updating our DCH model to reflect our cautious stance w/ non-adj. FCF in question,

2) Lowering our GT ests to reflect incremental raw mat headwinds & volume uncertainty.

DCH – All About Synergy Execution

Post 1Q26, we adjust our DCH estimates to account for the latest developments and reflect the Dowlais acquisition.

Despite Q1 being a solid beat (adj. EBITDA $308m vs cons. $274m), the quarter wasn’t particularly helpful to have a

clearer picture of the state of the union since 1) the contribution of Dowlais to DCH results was only partial (the deal

closed in the middle of the quarter), which makes the picture blurry, 2) the items incremental to DCH results on a y/y

basis are connected to the acquisition, but we are still in the early innings of the integration process.

With that said, we estimate FY26 adj EBITDA of $1,379m, well within the guidance range of $1,300m-$1,425m. We

see some downward pressure from volume/mix in FY26 (-$45m y/y) from softening LV production even with the launch

of the new GM truck. But that’s not where investors’ attention is. For the next 2-3 years, synergies are the core of the

DCH story. Early indications are promising (run-rate synergies of $35m as of May, $5m contributing to Q1 results) but

we acknowledge that cutting redundancies is perhaps the easiest and most immediate way to make progress to achieve

the $300m synergies target. For FY26, we expect synergies to contribute ~$50m positively to EBITDA, which are