U.S. Autos & Mobility: 2Q26 Pre-EPS Musings: Continue to prefer OEMs over suppliers, but could the debate soon shift?

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Autos & Mobility: 2Q26 Pre-EPS Musings: Continue to prefer OEMs over suppliers, but could the debate soon shift?

Equity Research

8 July 2026

U.S. Autos & Mobility

2Q26 Pre-EPS Musings: Continue

to prefer OEMs over suppliers, but

U.S. Autos & Mobilitycould the debate soon shift?

NEUTRAL

Key takes: 1. Continue to prefer OEMs on strong SAAR (prefer Unchanged

GM), yet mindful of USMCA + could supplier growth come in U.S. Autos & Mobility Dan Levy

focus? 2. 2Q expect in-line / slight beats, maintained/raised +1 212 526 3212

guides…auto stocks may outperform; 3. Focus stocks: Ford dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, US

(+ve), VC (+ve), ALV (-ve), APTV (battleground but skew -ve) Josh Cho

+1 212 526 7156

joshua.cho@barclays.com

BCI, US

Executive Summary Joshua Young

Continue to favor OEMs over suppliers; but mindful of USMCA, and keeping an eye +1 212 526 3280

jryoung@barclays.comon supplier growth opportunities

We continue to prefer OEMs over suppliers, and specifically prefer GM. The US auto industry

remains an area of strength for the global auto industry, with steady volumes and healthy price;

we expect OEMs to point to a better-than-expected SAAR environment in 1H, driving strength in

guides. Moreover, US OEMs benefit from easing EV regulations. Conversely on suppliers, they

remain in a no-growth environment, while China dynamics (margins, customer mix) remains an

overhang.

However, we see a couple considerations on the OEM vs supplier dynamics. First, we are mindful

of USMCA headlines, which could add headline volatility, and potentially a reminder of

increased cost. Second, while it is still early, we believe an opportunity may be emerging for

suppliers, with a return to growth in ’27. While still early, we believe any signs of growth would