Ithaca Energy plc: Project pipeline in full flow

Research evidence excerpt

Ithaca Energy plc: Project pipeline in full flow

Project pipeline in full flow

Within yesterday’s result update, Ithaca provided key updates on its main growth

opportunities. We continue to believe that any update towards FID should be

derisking in nature and catalyse equity market appreciation.

Rosebank timeline maintained

Despite an equipment handling incident, Ithaca maintained that Rosebank is

“progressing towards full first production in the Operator’s (Adura) stated 2026/27

start-up window”. We continue to expect Rosebank to be running at peak production

(~15kboe/d net to Ithaca) in mid-2027.

>190mmboe of 2C expected to be FIDd within 12 months

Looking further out and to projects that have yet to be approved, we look forward to the

progression of Fotla (8mmboe of net 2C resources following the announced farmdown

of 45% to Harbour Energy), Tornado (37mmboe of net 2C resources) and Cambo

(146mmboe of 2C resources net to Ithaca). Ithaca announced that it expects to take FID

on these growth opportunities within the next 12 months. According the company’s

published timeline, there is potential for all these projects to be FIDd in 2026.

We expect Cambo first oil in 2031 and value the asset at >$0.7bn to Ithaca (including tax

effects).

Further >40mmboe over 24 months

In addition to the above projects, Ithaca also announced that it expects to take FID on

Suilven (16mmboe net 2C resources) and Tobermory (~25mmboe net 2C resources)

within 24 months.

Exhibit 1 shows the full extent of Ithaca’s growth potential.

Exhibit 1: Current production is far from peak when considering 2C Exhibit 2: We see peak production of >50kboe/d in the early 2030s

projects Cambo production profile (kboe/d)

Projected production inclusive of 2C projects (kboe/d)