Ithaca Energy: Cash-flow certainty over upside risk

Research evidence excerpt

Ithaca Energy: Cash-flow certainty over upside risk

Equity Research

European Integrated Energy

20 May 2026

Ithaca Energy

Cash-flow certainty over upside

risk

While we believe Ithaca Energy is progressing well ITH.L/ITH LN UNDERWEIGHT

operationally and financially, commodity prices are likely to Unchanged

dictate its share price performance relative to peers. We European Integrated Energy UnchangedPOSITIVE

expect the group's 2026 heavy oil hedging to protect cash Price Target GBp 200

flows but limit upside as spot and forward prices exceed Unchanged

hedge levels. Price (19-May-26) GBp 286 Potential Upside/Downside -30.0%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

We believe macro events and commodity price movement are likely to drive Ithaca's share price

in the near term. Market Cap (GBP mn) 4723

Shares Outstanding (mn) 1653.73

Over the past three years, Ithaca’s prudent hedging strategy has delivered c.$0.5bn of Free Float (%) 13.61

cumulative gains. This year, however, we see the risk skewing to the downside, given our bullish 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.6

view on oil prices (more details: European Energy - Raising the anchor, 17 March 2026), as well Dividend Yield (%) 3.18

as the fact that spot and forward oil prices are materially above Ithaca’s hedged prices. While Return on Equity TTM (%) N/A

the company remains focused on protecting downside risk in oil, this caps upside participation Current BVPS (GBp) 159

as we argued in our previous note (Ithaca Energy - Hedging position could still be a drag, 20 May Source: Bloomberg

2026). By contrast, we believe upside risk is more pronounced on gas, where the company's

deliberately lower level of hedging leaves greater exposure to potential favourable price moves. Price Performance Exchange-LSE