TGT - The “Free Look” May Be Over But the Turnaround Is Still Promising—We Raise Our Estimates and Remain BUY-Rated With A $140 PT

Research evidence excerpt

TGT - The “Free Look” May Be Over But the Turnaround Is Still Promising—We Raise Our Estimates and Remain BUY-Rated With A $140 PT

May 21, 2026

John Heinbockel john.heinbockel@guggenheimpartners.com TGT - The “Free Look” May Be Over But the

212 381 4135 Turnaround Is Still Promising—We Raise Our

Steven Forbes, CFA, CPA

steven.forbes@guggenheimpartners.com Estimates and Remain BUY-Rated With A $140 PT

212 381 4188

Julio Marquez Key Message: The seeming dichotomy between the strong 1Q print and the lackluster julio.marquez@guggenheimpartners.com reaction is not surprising given sharp year-to-date share price outperformance, an 212 823 6605

elevated expectations bar, and the need for the narrative to pivot to the next, “sustainable”

Jacob Nivasch phase. For several months, we believed easy compares and fiscal stimulus gave

jacob.nivasch@guggenheimpartners.com investors a “free look” at the turnaround before a duration decision might have to be

212 338 8837 made. With that time at hand, we remain confident in the path to progress on improved

Max Horowitz customer engagement, an extensive product innovation agenda, and nascent marketing

max.horowitz@guggenheimpartners.com message. Revised 2026 guidance appears to incorporate partial re-investment potential,

212 518 9974 bolstering out-year growth. With the shares trading at an attractive 7.8x 2026E EBITDA

multiple—see Exhibit 1—we maintain our BUY rating and $140 price target, representing

an 18% TSR, inclusive of the 4% dividend.

The Big 1Q Beat Surprised Almost No One. Robust, above-consensus 1Q top andTGT BUY

Target Corporation bottom-line operating momentum was foreshadowed by consistently healthy third-party data

Sector: Food Retail since February and, thus, surprised almost no one on either the sell or buy-sides.